feat(quality): bandwidth probing for upward adaptive quality (#10)

After 30s stable at a tier, the AdaptiveQualityController actively
probes the next tier up by switching the encoder and observing for 5s.
If loss/RTT stay within the target tier's thresholds, the upgrade
commits. If >1 bad report, the probe aborts with a 60s cooldown.

Probing is disabled on cellular (studio tiers aren't classified there)
and skipped when already at Studio64k (highest tier).

This complements the passive upgrade path (10 consecutive good reports)
by actively discovering that a path can sustain higher quality, rather
than waiting for the classification to drift upward.

New: ProbeState struct, check_probe() method, 4 constants, 5 tests.
377 tests passing.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>

crates/wzp-proto/src/quality.rs

@@ -135,6 +135,10 @@ pub struct AdaptiveQualityController {
     fec_boost_until: Option<Instant>,
     /// FEC boost amount to add during handoff recovery window.
     fec_boost_amount: f32,
+    /// Probing state: when Some, we're actively testing a higher tier.
+    probe: Option<ProbeState>,
+    /// Time spent stable at the current tier (for probe trigger).
+    stable_since: Option<Instant>,
 }
 
 /// Threshold for downgrading (fast reaction to degradation).
@@ -151,6 +155,28 @@ const HISTORY_SIZE: usize = 20;
 const DEFAULT_FEC_BOOST: f32 = 0.2;
 /// Duration of FEC boost after a network handoff.
 const FEC_BOOST_DURATION_SECS: u64 = 10;
+/// Minimum time stable at current tier before probing upward (30 seconds).
+const PROBE_STABLE_SECS: u64 = 30;
+/// Duration of a probe window (5 seconds — ~25 quality reports at 1/s).
+const PROBE_DURATION_SECS: u64 = 5;
+/// Maximum bad reports during probe before aborting (1 out of ~5 = 20%).
+const PROBE_MAX_BAD: u32 = 1;
+/// Cooldown after a failed probe before trying again (60 seconds).
+const PROBE_COOLDOWN_SECS: u64 = 60;
+
+/// Active bandwidth probe state.
+struct ProbeState {
+    /// The tier we're probing (one step above current).
+    target_tier: Tier,
+    /// Profile to apply during probe.
+    target_profile: QualityProfile,
+    /// When the probe started.
+    started: Instant,
+    /// Reports observed during probe.
+    probe_reports: u32,
+    /// Bad reports during probe (loss/RTT exceeded target tier thresholds).
+    bad_reports: u32,
+}
 
 impl AdaptiveQualityController {
     pub fn new() -> Self {
@@ -164,6 +190,8 @@ impl AdaptiveQualityController {
             network_context: NetworkContext::default(),
             fec_boost_until: None,
             fec_boost_amount: DEFAULT_FEC_BOOST,
+            probe: None,
+            stable_since: None,
         }
     }
 
@@ -203,6 +231,10 @@ impl AdaptiveQualityController {
             self.forced = false;
         }
 
+        // Cancel any active probe
+        self.probe = None;
+        self.stable_since = None;
+
         // Activate FEC boost for any network change
         self.fec_boost_until = Some(Instant::now() + Duration::from_secs(FEC_BOOST_DURATION_SECS));
     }
@@ -223,6 +255,8 @@ impl AdaptiveQualityController {
     pub fn reset_counters(&mut self) {
         self.consecutive_up = 0;
         self.consecutive_down = 0;
+        self.probe = None;
+        self.stable_since = None;
     }
 
     /// Get the effective downgrade threshold based on network context.
@@ -278,6 +312,85 @@ impl AdaptiveQualityController {
         None
     }
 
+    /// Check whether to start, continue, or conclude a bandwidth probe.
+    ///
+    /// Called from `observe()` when no hysteresis transition fired.
+    fn check_probe(&mut self, observed_tier: Tier) -> Option<QualityProfile> {
+        // Don't probe if forced, or if already at highest tier, or on cellular
+        if self.forced || self.current_tier == Tier::Studio64k {
+            return None;
+        }
+        if matches!(
+            self.network_context,
+            NetworkContext::CellularLte | NetworkContext::Cellular5g | NetworkContext::Cellular3g
+        ) {
+            return None;
+        }
+
+        // If we have an active probe, evaluate it
+        if let Some(ref mut probe) = self.probe {
+            probe.probe_reports += 1;
+
+            // Check if the observed tier meets the probe target
+            if observed_tier < probe.target_tier {
+                probe.bad_reports += 1;
+            }
+
+            // Probe failed: too many bad reports
+            if probe.bad_reports > PROBE_MAX_BAD {
+                let _failed_probe = self.probe.take();
+                // Reset stable_since to trigger cooldown
+                self.stable_since =
+                    Some(Instant::now() + Duration::from_secs(PROBE_COOLDOWN_SECS));
+                return None; // stay at current tier
+            }
+
+            // Probe succeeded: enough good reports within the window
+            if probe.started.elapsed() >= Duration::from_secs(PROBE_DURATION_SECS) {
+                let target = probe.target_tier;
+                let profile = probe.target_profile;
+                self.probe.take();
+                self.current_tier = target;
+                self.current_profile = profile;
+                self.consecutive_up = 0;
+                self.stable_since = Some(Instant::now());
+                return Some(profile);
+            }
+
+            return None; // probe still running
+        }
+
+        // No active probe — check if we should start one
+        if observed_tier >= self.current_tier {
+            // Track stability
+            if self.stable_since.is_none() {
+                self.stable_since = Some(Instant::now());
+            }
+
+            if let Some(stable_since) = self.stable_since {
+                if stable_since.elapsed() >= Duration::from_secs(PROBE_STABLE_SECS) {
+                    // Stable long enough — start probing
+                    if let Some(next) = self.upgrade_one_step() {
+                        self.probe = Some(ProbeState {
+                            target_tier: next,
+                            target_profile: next.profile(),
+                            started: Instant::now(),
+                            probe_reports: 0,
+                            bad_reports: 0,
+                        });
+                        // Return the probe profile so the encoder switches
+                        return Some(next.profile());
+                    }
+                }
+            }
+        } else {
+            // Conditions degraded — reset stability timer
+            self.stable_since = None;
+        }
+
+        None
+    }
+
     fn upgrade_one_step(&self) -> Option<Tier> {
         match self.current_tier {
             Tier::Catastrophic => Some(Tier::Degraded),
@@ -309,7 +422,17 @@ impl QualityController for AdaptiveQualityController {
         }
 
         let observed = Tier::classify_with_context(report, self.network_context);
-        self.try_transition(observed)
+
+        // First check for downgrades/upgrades via hysteresis
+        if let Some(profile) = self.try_transition(observed) {
+            // Cancel any active probe on tier change
+            self.probe.take();
+            self.stable_since = None;
+            return Some(profile);
+        }
+
+        // Then check probing
+        self.check_probe(observed)
     }
 
     fn force_profile(&mut self, profile: QualityProfile) {
@@ -561,4 +684,97 @@ mod tests {
     fn network_context_default() {
         assert_eq!(NetworkContext::default(), NetworkContext::Unknown);
     }
+
+    // ---------------------------------------------------------------
+    // Bandwidth probing tests
+    // ---------------------------------------------------------------
+
+    #[test]
+    fn probe_triggers_after_stable_period() {
+        let mut ctrl = AdaptiveQualityController::new();
+        let excellent = make_report(0.3, 20); // would classify as Studio64k
+
+        // Starts at Good. Fast-forward stability by setting stable_since directly.
+        ctrl.stable_since = Some(Instant::now() - Duration::from_secs(31));
+
+        // One excellent report should trigger a probe (Good → Studio32k)
+        let result = ctrl.observe(&excellent);
+        assert!(result.is_some(), "should start probe after 30s stable");
+        assert!(ctrl.probe.is_some(), "probe should be active");
+        assert_eq!(ctrl.probe.as_ref().unwrap().target_tier, Tier::Studio32k);
+    }
+
+    #[test]
+    fn probe_succeeds_after_window() {
+        let mut ctrl = AdaptiveQualityController::new();
+        ctrl.stable_since = Some(Instant::now() - Duration::from_secs(31));
+
+        let excellent = make_report(0.3, 20);
+
+        // Trigger probe start
+        let result = ctrl.observe(&excellent);
+        assert!(result.is_some());
+
+        // Simulate probe window elapsed by backdating started
+        ctrl.probe.as_mut().unwrap().started =
+            Instant::now() - Duration::from_secs(PROBE_DURATION_SECS);
+
+        // Next good report should finalize the probe
+        let result = ctrl.observe(&excellent);
+        assert!(result.is_some(), "probe should succeed");
+        assert_eq!(ctrl.current_tier, Tier::Studio32k);
+        assert!(ctrl.probe.is_none(), "probe should be cleared");
+    }
+
+    #[test]
+    fn probe_fails_on_bad_reports() {
+        let mut ctrl = AdaptiveQualityController::new();
+        // Put controller at Studio32k, pretend we've been stable
+        ctrl.current_tier = Tier::Studio32k;
+        ctrl.current_profile = Tier::Studio32k.profile();
+        ctrl.stable_since = Some(Instant::now() - Duration::from_secs(31));
+
+        // Start a probe to Studio48k
+        let excellent = make_report(0.3, 20);
+        let result = ctrl.observe(&excellent);
+        assert!(result.is_some()); // probe started
+        assert_eq!(ctrl.probe.as_ref().unwrap().target_tier, Tier::Studio48k);
+
+        // Feed bad reports (loss too high for Studio48k)
+        let degraded = make_report(3.0, 100);
+        ctrl.observe(&degraded); // first bad
+        ctrl.observe(&degraded); // second bad — exceeds PROBE_MAX_BAD (1)
+
+        // Probe should be cancelled
+        assert!(ctrl.probe.is_none(), "probe should be cancelled after bad reports");
+        // Should still be at Studio32k (not upgraded)
+        assert_eq!(ctrl.current_tier, Tier::Studio32k);
+    }
+
+    #[test]
+    fn no_probe_on_cellular() {
+        let mut ctrl = AdaptiveQualityController::new();
+        ctrl.signal_network_change(NetworkContext::CellularLte);
+        ctrl.current_tier = Tier::Good;
+        ctrl.current_profile = Tier::Good.profile();
+        ctrl.stable_since = Some(Instant::now() - Duration::from_secs(60));
+
+        let good = make_report(0.5, 40);
+        let result = ctrl.observe(&good);
+        // Should NOT probe on cellular
+        assert!(ctrl.probe.is_none(), "should not probe on cellular");
+        assert!(result.is_none() || ctrl.current_tier == Tier::Good);
+    }
+
+    #[test]
+    fn no_probe_at_highest_tier() {
+        let mut ctrl = AdaptiveQualityController::new();
+        ctrl.current_tier = Tier::Studio64k;
+        ctrl.current_profile = Tier::Studio64k.profile();
+        ctrl.stable_since = Some(Instant::now() - Duration::from_secs(60));
+
+        let excellent = make_report(0.1, 10);
+        let result = ctrl.observe(&excellent);
+        assert!(result.is_none(), "should not probe when already at Studio64k");
+    }
 }